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Making sense of KT polls
23-Jan-2009, New Straits Times
By : Sheridan Mahavera and Sean Augustin

AS Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional analysts sieve through the reports on ground sentiments and crunch the numbers on the Kuala Terengganu by-election, three places -- Kuala Ibai, Pantai Cendering and Taman Permint Jaya -- should attract their attention.

These three polling districts, part of the Batu Burok state constituency, charted the farthest swing in votes between BN and Pakatan, where as many 211 people who voted for BN in the March 2008 general election did not do so on Jan 17.

The youth vote will also be of interest. Although a majority of voters under 40 voted for Pakatan, a significant number still chose BN and, in at least two areas, young people split with their elders to support the ruling coalition.

Then there is the much talked-about Chinese vote, which BN claimed has remained with it although it would then also have to conclude that Umno lost Malay support to Pas.

Either way, said a Pakatan official on the day the results came in, there would be a lot for both sides to chew on over the next few days.
Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut of Pas polled 2,631 more votes than BN's Datuk Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh, which is a larger majority than the 628 votes BN obtained when it won the seat 10 months ago.

Preliminary results from the by-election's 143 streams suggest that most of the votes that swept Wahid into Dewan Rakyat came from Batu Bu-rok.

Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research head Ibrahim Sufian said Pakatan gained 1,000 more votes than BN from the 11 polling districts in Batu Burok.

Last year, Pakatan won in six of those districts. On Jan 17, it maintained its hold on those six and won in the Kuala Ibai district by a 542-vote majority. Ten months ago, BN won in Kuala Ibai by 285 votes.

Ibrahim said: "The question for Umno is whether their members in Kuala Ibai who had voted for BN in 2008 did not come out to vote this time, had voted for Pas or were not around to vote."

The number of votes for Pakatan in Batu Burok's other districts also increased.

BN's other losses include winning in only one of the 12 polling districts in the Wakaf Mempelam state constituency, which is held by Wahid, and in only three of nine districts in La-dang.

The ruling coalition held sway in the Bandar state seat, where Kuala Terengganu's 8,229 Chinese voters are concentrated. It won in four of the seven districts in Bandar.

Parti Keadilan Rakyat strategy director Saifuddin Nasution said: "The increase in the Chinese vote for BN on Jan 17 compared with 2008 was a negligible 0.26 per cent, while the swing of Malay votes from BN to Pakatan was larger."

Another factor that could have played a part in the by-election outcome is the choice of candidate.

Perceptions aside, the results show how well the candidates did in their "kampung" among voters who were their neighbours, friends and people they grew up with.

Wahid, a five-term assemblyman, won with a 360-vote majority in the polling district of Pulau Rusa in Wakaf Mempelam. In comparison, said Saifuddin, Wan Farid lost in Bukit Besar, part of the Ladang state seat, by 61 votes.