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ELECTION 2008/Opinion: Fence-sitters may decide in close vote
21-Feb-2008, News Straits Times
By : SANTHA OORJITHAM

A Merdeka Center survey shows split voting is likely to happen again in Kelantan on March 8. Politicians on both sides tell SANTHA OORJITHAM how they plan to woo the fence-sitters. A THIRD of Kelantanese are for the Barisan Nasional (BN), another third for Pas and the rest are sitting on the fence.

That appears to be the voter sentiment in the state on the eve of the 12th general election, from the way they responded to opinion-research firm Merdeka Center’s survey there late last month.

It promises to be a close fight, and candidates on both sides of the divide will be doing their best to woo the fence-sitters while addressing their concerns. The split was clear when the 806 voters polled were asked whether, since the East Coast Economic Region (ECER) showed that the state could still get development projects from the federal government, the Kelantanese should replace or retain the state government. Thirty-nine per cent said they should change the current Pas-led administration, 31 per cent said it should be retained and the rest either said they didn’t know (26 per cent) or didn’t respond (four per cent).

And while 57 per cent of the respondents were satisfied with the ability of the Kelantan government to meet their aspirations, 74 per cent were satisfied with the ability of the BN-led federal government to meet those aspirations.

“It is likely that the split voting seen in Kelantan in 2004 will continue in 2008,” predicted Ong Kian Ming, a political scientist specialising in electoral politics, noting that respondents expressed 62 per cent satisfaction with their MPs and 60 per cent satisfaction with their state assembly representatives. But while 65 per cent said the Kelantan economy was “favourable” now, 65 per cent were unhappy with the price of consumer goods and services and 64 per cent were unhappy with job opportunities.

Voters were split again over whether the state government was able to deal with their top concerns — social problems, unemployment and drug abuse. “On many issues, it was about 50:50 because of their political alignment,” noted Merdeka Center director Ibrahim Suffian.

While 45 per cent thought the state government was able to deal with social problems, 42 per cent thought it wasn’t. Only 23 per cent thought the Pas administration was able to deal with unemployment while 73 per cent thought it couldn’t. And while 31 per cent thought it could tackle drug abuse, 73 per cent said it couldn’t.

“That should not be surprising since this has been the situation in Kelantan for over 20 years,” said Ong, despite 63 per cent of respondents saying they were satisfied with the performance of the state government and 72 per cent approving of Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat’s performance as menteri besar.

Datuk Dr Awang Adek Hussin, who was the member of parliament for Bachok and deputy finance minister, interpreted the voter concerns about economic issues as “to the good of the BN". “The BN has to be the one that can boost the economy,” he said. “The only way to tackle unemployment is to create more economic opportunities and activities, which the BN is proposing. These are things we can do immediately.”

As for social problems, he said: “These will also improve with better economic and living conditions and employment, which BN can deliver.” The Pas government in Kelantan is aware of all these issues and “is quite focused on trying to address and redress them", said Dr Zulkifli Ahmad, who heads Pas’ think tank and is on its election committee. “Some of these are federal policy issues and problems.”

For example, the prices of daily necessities have not gone up significantly in Kelantan compared with other states, Zulkifli claimed, noting that it was still possible to buy two packages of nasi lemak for a ringgit, though reductions in fuel subsidies have had a “knock-on” effect.

Zulkifli admitted that drug abuse is “quite significant” in Kelantan, especially at the border with Thailand. “Social problems are at a crisis stage at the national level and Kelantan is not totally protected.” However, the Kelantan government has shifted its “hard-and-fast, black-and-white” approach to social problems to “a more preventive rather than punitive” approach.

Asked about the ECER, 62 per cent of respondents had heard of it but only 50 per cent thought it would benefit them personally. “They don’t fully understand what’s in store,” explained Awang. “Until there is more information available, I wouldn’t take their reactions seriously. People will evaluate as they go along.”

The March 8 polls would be a “close call", he predicted. But Pas hopes to “maintain Kelantan” and do “slightly better” with at least two or three more seats in the state assembly. Awang interpreted the survey results as a win for the BN at state level. “I’ll be happy if we get a good majority and the opportunity to rule the state and bring progress and development,” he said.

For Ong, “the main question is whether the swing against Pas in 2004 was because of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s personality or more because of wanting an improvement in the economic situation". If the swing was due to economic reasons, he foresees, “it is possible that voters will swing more towards the BN".