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Opinion/Election 2008: When it pays to know electorate's thinking
01-Mar-2008, New Straits Times
By : SANTHA OORJITHAM

A Universiti Utara Malaysia team calling voters this week.

Public opinion surveys have shaped party campaigns for the March 8 general election, right down to the choice of candidates. Politicians tell SANTHA OORJITHAM why they are depending on pollsters more than ever before.

ONE month before the 2004 general election, a Merdeka Center survey of voter sentiment warned Pas that it was poised to lose Terengganu state.

"Party leaders were not willing to accept the findings," recalls Dr Zulkifli Ahmad, head of the Research Centre, the Pas think-tank.

The party's crushing defeat in March that year was a turning point for them. "We learned the hard way in 2004. Now such surveys are an essential tool for us," says Zulkifli, who is standing for the Kuala Selangor parliamentary seat.

In the run-up to the 12th general election, most political parties are relying on public opinion research to plan their campaigns, draft their manifestos and decide who to field where.
It's no coincidence, for example, that all of the candidates are addressing voter concerns about rising oil prices, the cost of living, job opportunities and the crime rate as they hit the hustings.

Both the Barisan Nasional (BN) components and the opposition have not only commissioned surveys from Merdeka Center and academics but done their own polling as well.

Although MCA has always done pre- and post-election surveys, in the past, it was ad hoc, says Fui K. Soong, the chief executive officer of the party's Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (Insap).

But for the past year, MCA has been doing intensive surveys in both parliamentary and state seats.

"Initially, we focused on what were the local issues in the marginal seats, where MCA had lost or won with a narrow margin, and how these had to be resolved," Fui explains.

"Then we moved on to getting the right candidates for the 'black' seats - opposition strongholds - and what were the national issues there. The choice of candidates in strategic areas is based on Insap surveys, which also provide input for their speeches, manifestos and slogans."

The party spent about two months per constituency. It has its own statistician and a team of about five analysts who conduct some of their own polling.

"Eventually, we plan to set up a call centre for immediate monitoring of issues and responses to specific events, speeches and policies," Fui says.

But they also outsource to local universities. Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM) did a "face-to-face" opinion survey for Insap late last year.

"It helped to understand Malaysians' political behaviour," says Associate Professor Dr Mansor Mohd Noor at UUM's College of Law, Government and International Studies, who has been doing election research since 2004.

The survey found the voters' main concerns were "political stability, bread-and-butter issues and the economy", he reports. "Although rising prices, corruption and crime were real issues for them, that would not convince them to vote the opposition."

Insap then followed up with focus groups. For example, one of the issues was economic opportunities and the perception that it is difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to get loans.

"Ninety per cent of registered businesses are SMEs, which are the backbone of the Chinese business community," notes Fui.

"From the focus groups, we found they had problems with transforming, adopting technology and changing their business model to face challenges globally and locally."

What came out of this was the MCA Economic Blueprint for the next five years, launched last weekend by its Economic Policy Bureau and SME Development Bureau to help SMEs compete in the international market.

Gerakan started doing surveys to track voter sentiment and reactions to issues in 2003 but "stepped up" for the forthcoming polls, says Khoo Kay Peng, the executive director of the Socio-Economic Development and Research Institute (Sedar).

By now, it has conducted surveys in almost all the parliamentary seats it is contesting.

"We do the surveys ourselves, but hire people to do the interviewing," says the think-tanker.

Respondents are asked what they think are the important national and local issues and about their perception of the party and the BN as well as the performance of their MPs and state assembly representatives.

"This definitely helped with strategy, putting the right candidates and deciding whether incumbents should be replaced," says Khoo.

"It helped us address issues before the election and provided input for the manifesto and campaign strategy, so that we could strike the right chord and get a sense of what the ground is thinking and what the people want from the BN."

Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) has been commissioning voter opinion surveys from Merdeka Center every quarter for the past two years, its programme director and strategy team member, Din Merican, says. In addition, its team of 10 volunteers also call about 800 numbers at random every quarter.

Pas did its own national survey of 1,000 at the end of 2006 and a survey of 300 in Kelantan early this year, followed by a focus group. It also commissioned a Merdeka Center survey in Terengganu in the last quarter of 2007.

And unlike 2004, party leaders now take stock of what the surveys reveal, says Zulkifli. For example, Terengganu voters told pollsters they wanted younger leaders. As a result, "almost 50 per cent of the candidates we fielded are younger".

"The survey also helped us look at the succession plan," he notes.

Although Kelantan Menteri Besar Datuk Nik Aziz Abdul Nik Mat was a "must" to contest the Chempaka state seat, the party shortlisted its other candidates based on voter perceptions, fielding those high on the list in state seats and the others for parliament.

Not all the parties could afford to pay for such surveys. But they took advantage of a "political party training" project by the liberal Friedrich Naumann Foundation, which sponsored two surveys by the Merdeka Center.

"About five parties, from the Barisan Nasional and the Opposition, inserted three to five questions about their elected representatives and leaders," says director Ibrahim Suffian.

"The results for their questions were given exclusively to them."

DAP submitted questions on whether voters knew their MPs and state assembly representatives and what they thought of Lim Kit Siang's leadership, says Ronnie Liu, their candidate for the Pandamaran state seat.

The results influenced the DAP campaign and manifesto.

"We went straight to the hot issues instead of guessing," says Liu.

"For example, the first item on our manifesto is making the streets safer and ensuring that 100,000 police personnel are deployed to reduce crime and eliminate the drug menace."

Another "freebie" which some of the parties are using is the public opinion database compiled by the Malaysian Institute for Research in Youth Development at http://petabelia.kbs.gov.my

"We monitor opinion on the increase in oil prices and whether their personal safety is at risk," says chief executive officer Professor Dr Samsudin Abdul Rahim.

The Youth Mapping notes the population between 15 and 24 years and 25 and 39 years in each area, whether they are registered as voters and whether they are receptive to government policies.

One party which does not rely on voter polls is the MIC.

"We have our own mechanism and feedback from the grassroots leaders, both party and non-party," says secretary-general Datuk Dr S. Subramaniam, who is defending the Segamat parliamentary seat. "We know the issues."

After the Hindu Rights Action Force rally on Nov 25, party president Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu took a roadshow to Kedah, Perak and Penang in December and met 3,500 branch chairmen at an assembly on Feb 3.

Wanita and Youth members also go door-to-door, says Datuk Paduka Komala Devi, Wanita MIC chief who is defending her Kapar parliamentary seat. "We think we know the sentiments. The issues are local rather than national."

But all the others are counting on public opinion research.

"Our strategy is based exclusively on these surveys," reports PKR's Din. If the findings are wrong, we will be badly hammered."

CLARIFICATION:

With reference to the above report, we would like to clarify that the Merdeka Center has never been commissioned to conduct opinion surveys by Parti Keadilan
Rakyat or others acting in its behalf at any point in time over the past two years. However, PKR was one of the parties which inserted questions into surveys
sponsored by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation over the past two years.

The Merdeka Center is an independent and non-partisan organization that conducts opinion research on a professional basis. Our clients include organizations from
both sides of the political spectrum in Malaysia as well as media firms including the New Straits Times.