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Observers note swing against BN in Malaysia
09-Mar-2008, AFP

Members of the ruling Barisan Nasional flash placards, which display the benefits if voters choose to vote for their party outside the polling center in Kota Bharu, Malaysia, yesterday.

TIME TO DECIDE: Police in Terengganu state fired tear gas and water cannons at opposition supporters as Malaysians voted in a general election yesterday

Malaysia's ruling coalition has suffered a major swing against it in general elections that may substantially decrease its majority in parliament, political observers said yesterday.

Citing unofficial and preliminary results, they said the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition was at risk of losing the island state of Penang for the first time and had failed to claw back Kelantan, the only state it does not rule.

"Basically, what we are seeing right now is that there is a massive swing against the Barisan Nasional among the ethnic Indian and Chinese electorates," said Merdeka Center research firm pollster Ibrahim Suffian.

"And also a significant swing of about 15 percent, I estimate, from among the Malay electorate as compared to the 2004 elections," he said, referring to the Muslim Malays, who dominate the nation's population.

"Judging by the extent to which the unofficial reports are coming through there is a slim chance that the BN's two-thirds majority [in parliament] might be breached," he said. However, Ibrahim noted that electoral authorities were slow to release official data and that "right now it's anecdotal information."

The opposition, rallied by former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim, has formed a loose alliance aimed at depriving the coalition of its two-thirds majority that allows it to change the Constitution at will.

Three opposition parties held just 20 seats in the outgoing 219-seat parliament, leaving the coalition with a thumping majority. BN's chairman in Kelantan, Annuar Musa, painted a gloomy picture for the coalition. "It looks very bad for BN, not just in Kelantan but across the country," he said. "Just watch the results as they come out."

Tricia Yeoh, director of the Centre for Public Policy Studies think tank, said that the elections could transform Malaysian politics. "The winds are very strong across the entire nation," she said. "It is not just a message to the government but a slap in the face." Yeoh said she expected the coalition to narrowly achieve a two-thirds majority.

"The opposition is likely to gain up to one-third of parliament, at this point. But it is a very close fight and results are still coming in," she said. In Terengganu state, police fired tear gas and water cannons at PAS party members who threw stones at two buses that were allegedly carrying National Front workers, state police chief Ayob Yaacob said.

PAS officials said the workers were being brought in to cast votes using bogus registration details. Ayob said police fired tear gas and detained 22 people. "After we did that, the rest of them all ran away," he said.

A key issue in the elections is the disillusionment among ethnic Chinese and Indians, who have complained about religious discrimination as well as a 37-year-old affirmative action program giving the majority Muslim Malays preference in government jobs, business and education.

Malays make up 60 percent of Malaysia's 27 million people and form the bulk of voters for Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's United Malays National Organization. The party dominates the governing coalition, which also includes Chinese and Indian-based parties in a power-sharing arrangement that has largely ensured racial peace in the multiethnic country.